Global Risk Outlook 2026

Critical Infrastructure: Rising Cyber and Physical Sabotage Risks

How Cyber and Physical Sabotage Are Threatening Critical Infrastructure in 2026

Threats to critical infrastructure are increasing — both online and on the ground. State-linked sabotage, cyberattacks, and low-cost physical operations are creating complex risks across sectors such as energy, water, transport, and digital systems.

With many systems ageing, under-secured, and deeply interconnected, even small disruptions can lead to widespread impact. Adversarial states and non-state actors are increasingly targeting critical infrastructure as a way to signal, destabilise, or impose costs during periods of geopolitical escalation.

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How Are States Targeting Critical Infrastructure in 2026?

Hostile states are adopting hybrid approaches, combining digital disruption with physical sabotage. In Europe, Russia has scaled the use of both cyberattacks and low-tech acts of sabotage to target power lines, transport networks, and undersea cables.

Through encrypted platforms, Moscow-linked actors have recruited sympathisers and criminal groups to carry out low-cost, deniable attacks. These tactics have proven highly scalable, with little forensic evidence, and are now influencing extremist and activist groups across the continent.

Resilience Gaps Across Critical Infrastructure Systems

While investment in cyber defence has improved response times, critical infrastructure remains vulnerable to physical attacks. Unlike cyber incidents, sabotage often bypasses digital detection and requires on-site response across systems that may span thousands of kilometres.

Attacks on substations, data centres, and logistics hubs have already caused near-billion-dollar disruptions. Public and private operators face rising pressure to review access control, threat monitoring, and redundancy measures in a year where both state-linked and ideological attacks are expected to increase.

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