Global Risk Outlook 2026

Islamic State in Africa: Escalating Insurgency Across Fragile States

How Islamic State Is Growing Across Africa’s Fragile States

Following territorial losses in the Middle East, Africa has become Islamic State’s most active operational theatre. Over 90% of claimed attacks now occur on the continent.

Driven by decentralised command, opportunistic expansion, and external funding, IS provinces are consolidating in fragile states and expanding into new territory, raising threat levels across the Sahel, Lake Chad, and Central and East Africa.

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How Has Islamic State Adapted Its Strategy in Africa?

IS provinces are now active in at least eight countries, with ISWAP and ISSP among the most lethal. Groups are targeting military bases, civilians, and infrastructure, often exploiting state withdrawals and external funding to scale operations.

In 2025, over 500 attacks were recorded across Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, DRC, and Mozambique. IS cells have expanded their footprint in previously less-affected areas like Nampula (Mozambique) and southeastern Niger.

Risk Outlook for IS Activity in Africa in 2026

IS activity is forecast to grow in 2026, particularly in areas with limited state control, active conflict zones, and porous borders. Sahelian states, eastern DRC, and northern Mozambique remain high-risk, with potential for external operations to increase if consolidation continues.

Islamic State is also encouraging expansion into Sudan and North Africa, while surveillance disruptions and Sudan’s civil war may enable new provinces to form. Security forces in Morocco, Kenya, and South Africa have already disrupted plots linked to IS affiliates.

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